External validation and revision of Penn incisional hernia prediction model: A large-scale retrospective cohort of abdominal operations.

BACKGROUND: Incisional hernia (IH) manifests in 10%-15% of abdominal surgeries and patients at elevated risk of this complication should be identified for prophylactic intervention. This study aimed to externally validate the Penn hernia risk calculator. METHODS: The Ramathibodi abdominal surgery cohort was constructed by linking relevant hospital databases from 2010 to 2021. Penn hernia risk scores were calculated according to the original model which was externally validated using a seven-step approach. An updated model which included four additional predictor variables (i.e., age, immunosuppressive medication, ostomy reversal, and transfusion) added to those of the three original predictors (i.e., body mass index, chronic liver disease, and open surgery) was also evaluated. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was estimated, and calibration performance was compared using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit method for the observed/expected (O/E) ratio. RESULTS: A total of 12,155 abdominal operations were assessed. The original Penn model yielded fair discrimination with an AUC (95% confidence interval (CI)) of 0.645 (0.607, 0.683). The updated model that included the additional predictor variables achieved an acceptable AUC (95% CI) of 0.733 (0.698, 0.768) with the O/E ratio of 0.968 (0.848, 1.088). CONCLUSION: The updated model achieved improved discrimination and calibration performance, and should be considered for the identification of high-risk patients for further hernia prevention strategy.

Delayed versus primary closure to minimize risk of surgical-site infection for complicated appendicitis: A secondary analysis of a randomized trial using counterfactual prediction modeling.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the risk of surgical site infection (SSI) following complicated appendectomy in individual patients receiving delayed primary closure (DPC) versus primary closure (PC) after adjustment for individual risk factors. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of randomized controlled trial (RCT) with prediction model. SETTING: Referral centers across Thailand. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients who underwent appendectomy via a lower-right-quadrant abdominal incision due to complicated appendicitis. METHODS: A secondary analysis of a published RCT was performed applying a counterfactual prediction model considering interventions (PC vs DPC) and other significant predictors. A multivariable logistic regression was applied, and a likelihood-ratio test was used to select significant predictors to retain in a final model. Factual versus counterfactual SSI risks for individual patients along with individual treatment effect (iTE) were estimated. RESULTS: In total, 546 patients (271 PC vs 275 DPC) were included in the analysis. The individualized prediction model consisted of allocated intervention, diabetes, type of complicated appendicitis, fecal contamination, and incision length. The iTE varied between 0.4% and 7% for PC compared to DPC; ∼38.1% of patients would have ≥2.1% lower SSI risk following PC compared to DPC. The greatest risk reduction was identified in diabetes with ruptured appendicitis, fecal contamination, and incision length of 10 cm, where SSI risks were 47.1% and 54.1% for PC and DPC, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this secondary analysis, we found that most patients benefited from early PC versus DPC. Findings may be used to inform SSI prevention strategies for patients with complicated appendicitis.

Outcomes of direct-acting antivirals in patients with HCV decompensated cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Direct-acting antivirals (DAA) are effective for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. However, their impact on overall survival (OS), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence, HCC-free survival, and liver function in patients with HCV decompensated cirrhosis remains uncertain. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of DAA treatment on this population. Methods: Studies were identified by searching the MEDLINE, SCOPUS, and CENTRAL databases. OS and HCC-free survival probabilities and time data were extracted from Kaplan-Meier curves. A one-stage meta-analysis using parametric Weibull regression was conducted to estimate the relative treatment effects of DAA vs. no DAA. The primary outcome was the OS rate. The secondary outcomes were HCC-free survival, HCC occurrence rate, and improvement in the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Results: Eight cohorts comprising 3,430 participants (2,603 in the DAA group and 1,999 in the no-DAA group) were included. The OS probabilities at 12 and 24 months were 95 and 90% for the DAA group, respectively, compared with 89 and 80% in the no-DAA group, respectively. Hazard ratio (HR) was 0.48 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.39, 0.60; p < 0.001). The HCC-free survival probabilities at 12 and 24 months were 96 and 90%, respectively, in the former, and 94 and 85%, respectively, in the latter. The HR of HCC occurrence was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.52, 1.00; p = 0.05), which suggests that DAA treatment in decompensated cirrhosis may lead to a 28% lower risk of HCC occurrence. The mean MELD score difference was -7.75 (95% CI: -14.52, -0.98; p = 0.02). Conclusion: Improvement in OS and MELD score is a long-term benefit of DAA treatment in patients with HCV decompensated cirrhosis, with a marginal effect of the treatment on HCC development.

Success Rate of Buccal Fat Pad Removal in Cases of Previous Injection Lipolysis of the Cheeks: A Comparative Analysis.

Background: Although buccal fat pad removal for facial slimming has a high success rate, fibrosis in patients with a history of cheek injection lipolysis may pose challenges. Therefore, we evaluated the success rate and procedure-related complications of buccal fat pad removal in patients with a history of cheek injection lipolysis. Methods: Patients who underwent buccal fat pad removal between September 2016 and February 2020 were categorized according to a history of lipolysis (injection lipolysis group versus control group). The primary and secondary outcomes were the success rate of buccal fat pad removal and the incidence of procedure-related complications, respectively. Results: The study sample comprised 100 patients (14 men; 86 women; mean age, 27.49 ± 6.26 years; mean follow-up duration, 7.41 months), with 61 patients (nine men; 52 women) in the injection lipolysis group and 39 patients (five men; 34 women) in the control group. The mean buccal fat pad weight did not differ significantly between the two groups. However, the success rate was 91.8% (56/61 patients) and 100% (39/39 patients) in the injection lipolysis and control groups, respectively. Complications were exclusively observed in the injection lipolysis group [8/122 cheeks (6.6%); control group, 0/78 cheeks (0%)]. Conclusions: Buccal fat pad removal effectively enhances the aesthetic appearance of the lower face. However, in patients with a history of cheek injection lipolysis, the success rate of buccal fat pad removal is lower, and the incidence of complications is significantly higher. Consequently, caution should be exercised when performing this procedure in specific patient populations.

Comparative cardiovascular outcomes of novel drugs as an addition to conventional triple therapy for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF): a network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Currently, there is no head-to-head comparison of novel pharmacological treatments for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). A network meta-analysis aimed to compare effects of both conventional and alternative drug combinations on time to develop primary composite outcome of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalisation (PCO). METHODS: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were identified from Medline, Scopus up to June 2021. The RCTs were included if comparing any single or combination of drugs, that is, ACE inhibitors (ACEI), angiotensin receptor blockers, beta-blockers (BB), mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRA), ivabradine (IVA), angiotensin receptor blocker/neprilysin inhibitors (ARNI) and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), soluble guanylyl cyclase and omecamtiv mecarbil and reporting PCO. Data were extracted from Kaplan-Meier curves, individual patient data were generated. A mixed-effect Weibull regression was applied. Median time to PCO, HRs with 95% CI were estimated accordingly. Our findings suggested that ACEI+BB+MRA+SGLT2i, BB+MRA+ARNI, and ACEI+BB+MRA+IVA had lower probability of PCOs than the conventional triple therapy (ACEI+BB+MRA). RESULTS: Median time to PCOs of ACEI+BB+MRA was 57.7 months whereas median times to those new combinations were longer than 57.7 months. In addition, the three new regimens had a significantly lower PCO risks than ACEI+BB+MRA, with the HRs (95% CI) of 0.51 (0.43 to 0.61), 0.55 (0.46 to 0.65) and 0.56 (0.47 to 0.67), accordingly. CONCLUSION: This study suggested that SGLT2i, ARNI and IVA in addition to ACEI+BB+MRA may be better in prolonging time to develop PCO in HFrEF patients.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of isolation strategies for asymptomatic and mild symptom COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Management of COVID-19 patients with mild and moderate symptoms could be isolated at home isolation (HI), community isolation (CI) or hospitel. However, it was still unclear which strategy was more cost-effective. Therefore, this study was conducted to evaluate this. METHODS: This study used data from patients who initially stayed at HI, CI, and hospitel under supervision of Ramathibodi Hospital between April and October 2021. Outcomes of interest were hospitalisation and mortality. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) was calculated based on hospital perspective using home isolation as the reference. RESULTS: From 7,077 patients, 4,349 2,356, and 372 were admitted at hospitel, HI, and CI, respectively. Most patients were females (57.04%) and the mean age was 40.42 (SD = 16.15). Average durations of stay were 4.47, 3.35, and 3.91 days for HI, CI, and hospitel, respectively. The average cost per day for staying in these corresponding places were 24.22, 63.69, and 65.23 US$. For hospitalisation, the ICER for hospitel was at 41.93 US$ to avoid one hospitalisation in 1,000 patients when compared to HI, while CI had more cost, but less cases avoided. The ICER for hospitel and CI were at 46.21 and 866.17 US$ to avoid one death in 1,000 patients. CONCLUSIONS: HI may be cost-effective isolated strategy for preventing hospitalisation and death in developing countries with limited resources.

An updated meta-analysis of effects of curcumin on metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease based on available evidence from Iran and Thailand.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a common cause of chronic liver disease and can progress to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and cirrhosis. This study aims to summarize the evidence for the effects of curcumin on MAFLD progression. Studies were identified from Medline and Scopus databases until April 2022. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses (SRMA) and randomized controlled trials (RCT) were selected based on pre-specified criteria. Three reviewers independently extracted data and assessed quality of included studies. Of the 427 identified records, 6 SRMAs and 16 RCTs were included in the analysis. Very high overlap was observed among SRMAs with corrected covered area of 21.9%. From an updated meta-analysis, curcumin demonstrated significant improvement in aspartate and alanine aminotransferase with pooled mean difference [95% confidence interval (CI)] of -3.90 (-5.97, -1.82) and -5.61 (-9.37, -1.85) units/L, respectively. Resolution and improvement of hepatic steatosis was higher in curcumin than control group with pooled relative risk (95% CI) of 3.53 (2.01, 6.22) and 3.41 (1.36, 8.56), respectively. Curcumin supplementation also led to lower fasting blood sugar, body mass index, and total cholesterol. Further trials should be conducted to assess the effect of curcumin on liver histology, especially regarding non-invasive hepatic fibrosis and steatosis.

Efficacy and safety of monoclonal antibody therapy in patients with neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder: A systematic review and network meta-analysis.

Introduction: Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) is a devastating inflammatory CNS demyelinating disease. Two groups of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are used to prevent disease relapse, i.e., Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved mAbs (e.g., eculizumab satralizumab, inebilizumab), and off-label mAb drugs (e.g., rituximab and tocilizumab). The FDA-approved mAbs have high efficacy but more expensive compared to the off-labels, and thus are less accessible. This systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) was to assess the efficacy and safety of both classes of mAbs compared to the current standard treatments. Methods: Systematically searches were conducted in MEDLINE and SCOPUS from inception until July 2021. Randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) were eligible if they compared any pair of treatments (mAbs, immunosuppressive drugs, or placebo) in adult patients with NMOSD. Studies with AQP4-IgG positive or negative were used in the analysis. Probability of relapse and time to event were extracted from the Kaplan-Meier curves using Digitizer. These data were then converted into individual patient time-to-event data. A one-stage mixed-effect survival model was applied to estimate the median time to relapse and relative treatment effects using hazard ratios (HR). Two-stage NMA was used to determine post-treatment annualized relapse rate (ARR), expanded disability status score (EDSS) change, and serious adverse events (SAE). Risk of bias was assessed using the revised cochrane risk of bias tool. Results: A total of 7 RCTs with 776 patients were eligible in the NMA. Five of the seven studies were rated low risk of bias. Both FDA-approved and off-label mAbs showed significantly lower risk of relapse than standard treatments, with HR (95% CI) of 0.13 (0.07, 0.24) and 0.16 (0.07, 0.37) respectively. In addition, the FDA-approved mAbs had 20% lower risk of relapse than the off-label mAbs, but this did not reach statistical significance. The ARRs were also lower in FDA-approved and off-label mAbs than the standard treatments with the mean-difference of-0.27 (-0.37,-0.16) and-0.31(-0.46,-0.16), respectively. Conclusion: The off-label mAbs may be used as the first-line treatment for improving clinical outcomes including disease relapse, ARR, and SAEs for NMOSD in countries where resources and accessibility of the FDA-approved mAbs are limited. Systematic review registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=283424, identifier: CRD42021283424.

Treatment outcomes of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in real-life practice: Chemotherapy versus multikinase inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Multikinase inhibitors (MKIs) represent the main treatment options for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC). However, accessibility in developing countries is limited. A chemotherapy, Fluorouracil and Oxaliplatin (FOLFOX), offers a less expensive treatment. Therefore, this study sought to compare the clinical effectiveness of FOLFOX with Sorafenib as a first-line treatment for aHCC in real-life practice. METHODS: A retrospective aHCC cohort from four Thai hospitals was investigated for patients who received FOLFOX or Sorafenib between 2013-2019. Multiple imputation by chained equations addressed missing covariate data in a treatment effect model using Weight-adjusted-censoring inverse-probability-weighted regression adjustment; overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were estimated. RESULTS: A total of 504 patients were included, (Sorafenib [n = 382] and FOLFOX [n = 122]). The treatment effect model estimated a median OS for Sorafenib and FOLFOX of 11.38 and 8.22 months, representing a significantly shorter OS (95% confidence interval) of -3.16 (-6.21, -0.11) months for FOLFOX, p = 0.042. A significant shorter median PFS of FOLFOX to Sorafenib of -2.13 (-3.03, -1.24) months, p < 0.001, was reported. CONCLUSION: Despite significantly shorter median OS and PFS than Sorafenib, FOLFOX still extended OS by 8.22 months. This evidence may offer clinical utility to physicians considering treatment options for aHCC in low resource settings.

Accuracy and external validation of the modified rapid emergency medicine score in road traffic injuries in a Bangkok level I trauma center.

Background: Trauma is a significant public health problem. Therefore, many injury scores have been created to predict mortality and triage patients. This study aims to validate the modified Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (mREMS) for in-hospital mortality prediction in road traffic injuries and compare the mREMS with the revised trauma score (RTS) and the mechanisms, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), age, and arterial pressure (MGAP) score. Methods: Data were retrospectively collected from the Vajira Hospital (1,033 cases). The mREMS was calculated from six predictors: age, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, pulse oxygen saturation, and GCS. The receiver operating characteristic curve was plotted, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated. The AUC and 95% confidence interval (CI) of the mREMS were compared with the AUCs of other scores. Model calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Results: The mREMS was significantly better than the RTS at predicting death in road traffic injury patients [mREMS: AUCs, 0.909 (95% CI, 0.866-0.951); RTS: AUCs, 0.859 (95% CI, 0.791-0.927] (p = 0.023). However, the difference between the AUCs of the mREMS and MGAP score was not statistically significant (p = 0.150). The mREMS' calibration performance was also satisfactory in this dataset based on the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (p = 0.277). Conclusion: In the road traffic injury population, the mREMS is an excellent predictor of in-hospital mortality. These results can be applied to improve triage. However, this score should be further validated in other trauma centers before nationwide implementation.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the otolaryngology residency training program in a university-based hospital in Bangkok, Thailand.

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the otolaryngology residency training program in Vajira Hospital, Navamindradhiraj University. Methods: Conducted from October 2021 to January 2022, this cross-sectional survey included all residents, residents who graduated in 2021, and the attending staff. One form was sent to both resident groups for self-assessment and another form to the attending staff for resident assessment. The survey questions were about attitude toward COVID-19 service, knowledge, outpatient department service, surgical skills, and burnout assessment using the Maslach Burnout Inventory. Results: This study included 17 residents and 9 attending staff members. COVID-19 indeed had affected the clinical and surgical training. Regarding the attitude toward COVID-19 services, the residents were moderately satisfied. They were concerned about work suspension resulting from infection and also death from COVID-19. N95 masks and other protective gears were scarce. Compared with those during the prepandemic era, residents had fewer academic activities, and they preferred hybrid teaching. The inpatient department, outpatient department, and surgical training opportunities, as well as elective and urgent surgeries, were also reduced. The attending staff considered 1-year extension of the training program, but the residents disapproved. The residents became less confident both in outpatient department service and surgical skill, and they felt emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, and decreased sense of personal accomplishment. Conclusion: COVID-19 pandemic had significant impact on otolaryngology residency training programs. It did not only affect burnout among residents but also caused a perception of skill and knowledge reduction.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of mesh fixation techniques for laparoscopic and open inguinal hernia surgeries.

PURPOSE: This study reports economic evaluation of mesh fixation in open and laparoscopic hernia repair from a prospective real-world cohort study, using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and cost-utility analysis (CUA). METHODS: A prospective real-world cohort study was conducted in two university-based hospitals in Thailand from November 2018 to 2019. Patient data on hernia features, operative approaches, clinical outcomes, associated cost data, and quality of life were collected. Models were used to determine each group's treatment effect, potential outcome means, and average treatment effects. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was used to evaluate the incremental risk of hernia recurrences. RESULTS: The 261 patients in this study were divided into six groups: laparoscopic with tack (LT, n = 47), glue (LG, n = 26), and self-gripping mesh (LSG, n = 30), and open with suture (OS, n = 117), glue (OG, n = 18), and self-gripping mesh (OSG, n = 23). Hernia recurrence was most common in LSG. The mean utility score was highest in OG and OSG (both 0.99). Treatment costs were generally higher for laparoscopic than open procedures. The cost-effectiveness plane for utility and hernia recurrence identified LSG as least cost effective. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves identified OG as having the highest probability of being cost effective at willingness to pay levels between $0 and $3,300, followed by OSG. CONCLUSION: Given the similarity of hernia recurrence among all major procedures, the cost of surgery may impact the decision. According to our findings, open hernia repair with adhesive or self-gripping mesh appears most cost-effective.

Fascial Dehiscence and Incisional Hernia Prediction Models: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Fascial dehiscence (FD) and incisional hernia (IH) pose considerable risks to patients who undergo abdominal surgery, and many preventive strategies have been applied to reduce this risk. An accurate predictive model could aid identification of high-risk patients, who could be targeted for particular care. This study aims to systematically review existing FD and IH prediction models. METHODS: Prediction models were identified using pre-specified search terms on SCOPUS, PubMed, and Web of Science. Eligible studies included those conducted in adult patients who underwent any kind of abdominal surgery, and reported model performance. Data from the eligible studies were extracted, and the risk of bias (RoB) was assessed using the PROBAST tool. Pooling of C-statistics was performed using a random-effect meta-analysis. [Registration: PROSPERO (CRD42021282463)]. RESULTS: Twelve studies were eligible for review; five were FD prediction model studies. Most included studies had high RoB, especially in the analysis domain. The C-statistics of the FD and IH prediction models ranged from 0.69 to 0.92, but most have yet to be externally validated. Pooled C-statistics (95% CI) were 0.80 (0.74, 0.86) and 0.81 (0.75, 0.86) for the FD (external-validation) and IH prediction model, respectively. Some predictive factors such as body mass index, smoking, emergency operation, and surgical site infection were associated with FD or IH occurrence and were included in multiple models. CONCLUSIONS: Several models have been developed as an aid for FD and IH prediction, mostly with modest performance and lacking independent validation. New models for specific patient groups may offer clinical utility.

Mesh-fixation technique for inguinal hernia repair: umbrella review.

BACKGROUND: Mesh-based repair is the standard of surgical care for symptomatic inguinal hernias. Many systematic reviews and meta-analyses (SRMAs) addressed various aspects of these procedures. This umbrella review aimed to report the evidence from all previous SRMAs for open and laparoscopic inguinal hernia repair. METHODS: SRMAs were identified from MEDLINE, Scopus, Cochrane, Embase, DARE, PROSPERO, CINAHL, JBISRIS, EPPI-Centre, Wiley Online Library and ScienceDirect database according to PRISMA guidelines. Data including mesh-fixation techniques and surgical approach were extracted from selected SRMAs. The corrected covered area was calculated to address study overlap across reviews, and an excess significance test was used to assess potential bias. The outcomes of interest were hernia recurrence, chronic groin pain, operating time, postoperative pain, duration of hospital stay, return to daily life activities, and postoperative complication. RESULTS: Thirty SRMAs were included between 2010 and 2019: 16 focused on open repair, and 14 focused on laparoscopic repair, with a high degree of overlap (open repairs, 41 per cent; laparoscopic repairs, 30-57 per cent). Sufficient evidence was available on hernia recurrence, chronic groin pain, and operative time. Effects of glue on hernia recurrence were inconclusive in open and laparoscopy approaches, P = 0.816 and 0.946 respectively. Glue was significantly associated with lower persistent groin pain, in open repair (versus suture) and in laparoscopic repair (versus tack). SRMAs suggested that self-gripping mesh was associated with shorter operating time in open surgery, although with only a few minutes of improvement (0.36-7.85 min, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In this umbrella review, chronic groin pain and operating time were the only outcomes for which there was sufficient evidence supporting the effectiveness respectively of glue and self-gripping mesh.

The Myopectineal Orifice: A Study of Thai Cadavers.

Objective: This study aimed to determine the myopectineal orifice size measured in Thai human cadavers. Materials and Methods: A total of 30 human cadavers, comprising 55 groins, were assessed. Myopectineal orifices (MPOs) were measured in two dimensions: height from the lower border of the conjoined tendon to the upper border of the pectineal ligament and width from the lateral border of pubic tubercle to the medial border of the iliopsoas muscle. Results: The mean MPO size is 7.13 + 0.14 cm in width and 6.66 + 0.32 m in height. The mean width and height in male cadavers are 7.16 + 0.14 and 6.84 + 0.27 cm, respectively. The mean width and height in female cadavers are 7.09 + 0.12 and 6.45 + 0.24 cm, respectively. The mean MPO area is 37.26 ± 0.027 cm2, compared with the area of mesh graft 10 cm × 15 cm, 150 cm2. Although the shrinkage of cadaveric tissue and mesh size were adjusted, which were 39.56 ± 0.029 and 81 cm2, respectively, they were found to be sufficient for the mean MPO area. It was found that the mesh size was sufficient for the mean MPO area. Conclusion: A mesh size of 10 cm × 15 cm is found to be the appropriate size to cover the MPO among Thais.

Vacuum Therapy and Internal Drainage as the First-Line Endoscopic Treatment for Post-Bariatric Leaks: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Introduction: Several endoscopic methods can be employed to manage post-bariatric leaks. However, endoluminal vacuum therapy (EVT) and endoscopic internal drainage (EID) are relatively new methods, and studies regarding these methods are scarce. We performed a systematic review of the literature and a meta-analysis to evaluate the efficacy of EVT and EID. Methods: Databases were searched for eligible studies. The clinical success of leak closure was the primary outcome of interest. A proportional meta-analysis was performed for pooling the primary outcome using a fixed-effects model. A meta-analysis or descriptive analysis of other outcomes was performed based on the data availability. Results: Data from 3 EVT and 10 EID studies (n = 279) were used for evidence synthesis. The leak closure rates (95% confidence interval [CI]) of EVT and EID were 85.2% (75.1%-95.4%) and 91.6% (88.1%-95.2%), respectively. The corresponding mean treatment durations (95% CI) were 28 (2.4-53.6) and 78.4 (50.1-106.7) days, respectively. However, data about other outcomes were extremely limited; thus, a pooled analysis could not be performed. Conclusions: Both EVT and EID were effective when used as the first-line treatment for post-bariatric leaks. However, larger studies must be conducted to compare the efficacy of the 2 interventions.

Prediction of seroma after total mastectomy using an artificial neural network algorithm.

Seroma is a common complication after mastectomy. To the best of our knowledge, no prediction models have been developed for this. Henceforth, medical records of total mastectomy patients were retrospectively reviewed. Data consisting of 120 subjects were divided into a training-validation data set (96 subjects) and a testing data set (24 subjects). Data was learned by using a 9-layer artificial neural network (ANN), and the model was validated using 10-fold cross-validation. The model performance was assessed by a confusion matrix in the validating data set. The receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed, and the area under the curve (AUC) was also calculated. Pathology type, presence of hypertension, presence of diabetes, receiving of neoadjuvant chemotherapy, body mass index, and axillary lymph node (LN) management (i.e., sentinel LN biopsy and axillary LN dissection) were selected as predictive factors in a model developed from the neural network algorithm. The model yielded an AUC of 0.760, which corresponded with a level of acceptable discrimination. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and positive and negative predictive values were 100%, 52.9%, 66.7%, 46.7%, and 100%, respectively. Our model, which was developed from the ANN algorithm can predict seroma after total mastectomy with high sensitivity. Nevertheless, external validation is still needed to confirm the performance of this model.

Midline incisional hernia prophylaxis using synthetic mesh in an emergency or urgent gastrointestinal tract surgery: a protocol for multicentre randomised clinical trial.

INTRODUCTION: Between 5% and 30% of abdominal incisions eventually result in incisional hernias (IHs) that can lead to severe complications and impaired quality of life. Unfortunately, IH repair is often unsuccessful; therefore, hernia prophylaxis is an important issue. The efficacy of mesh augmentation has been proven for hernia prophylaxis in high-risk patients, but no randomised clinical trial has evaluated prophylactic mesh placement in emergency/urgent gastrointestinal operations. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A multicentre, prospective randomised, open and patient-assessor blinded endpoint design will be conducted. A total of 470 patients will be enrolled and randomly allocated to retrorectus mesh augmentation with lightweight polypropylene mesh or primary suture closure. The primary outcome is IH occurrence within 24 months of follow-up, while other clinical outcomes are secondary endpoints. A cost-effectiveness analysis will be conducted from the societal and provider perspectives. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval was obtained from Ramathibodi Hospital (MURA2020/1478) and Vajira Hospital (COA164/2563). The protocol is on the process of submission to the local ethics committee of the other study sites. Results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: TCTR20200924002.